February Mid-Month Market Update: Prices Climbing High, But Are They About to Descend?

Hello Phoenix friends! It’s that time again where we break down what’s happening in our local real estate market, sprinkle in a bit of wit, and give you the scoop without putting you to sleep. Let’s dive in!

What Happened Last Month? As of February 15, the average sales price per square foot across all ARMLS listings was $313.12. That’s a 1.1% jump from January 15’s $305.06. While we predicted prices would rise, they shot up even more than expected—almost brushing the top of our forecast range. Clearly, the market had a little extra caffeine last month.

A Rollercoaster Ride for Prices If you’ve felt like the market has been a bit...unpredictable, you’re not alone. Over the past seven months, price per square foot has been swinging wildly—up nearly 5% one month, down 3% the next. However, the median sales price has stayed steady at around $450,000 since mid-October. The reason? The luxury market is having a moment, with high-end homes selling like hotcakes, pushing up the averages while the bulk of the market stays relatively flat.

Looking Ahead: Will Prices Take a Breather? Pending sales as of February 15 show an average list price per square foot of $334.18, down 3% from January. This hints that by mid-March, we might see a dip in closed prices as more typical market sales start to balance out the luxury frenzy.

Foreclosures? Still a non-issue. Less than 2% of pending listings are in distress (REOs or short sales), keeping our market stable by historical standards.

Our March Forecast We’re projecting the average sales price per square foot to settle at $304.87 by March 15, a 2.6% drop from February. Expect prices to land somewhere between $298.77 and $310.97—because, let’s face it, predicting the market is a bit like predicting Arizona weather in June. (Spoiler: It’s going to be hot, but how hot?)

Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, reach out if you have questions, need advice, or just want to talk real estate (or football—I’m always up for that). Until next time, stay cool, Phoenix!